Temperatures on earth have increased approximately 1.8°F since the early 20th century. Over this time period, atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) have notably increased. Both sides in the debate surrounding global climate change agree on these points.
The greenhouse effect illustrated.
Source: US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), "Frequently Asked Questions about Global Warming and Climate Change: Back to Basics," www.epa.gov (accessed Mar. 12, 2015)
The pro side argues rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases are a direct result of human activities such as burning fossil fuels, and that these increases are causing significant and increasingly severe climate changes including global warming, loss of sea ice, sea level rise, stronger storms, and more droughts. They contend that immediate international action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is necessary to prevent dire climate changes.
The con side argues human-generated greenhouse gas emissions are too small to substantially change the earth’s climate and that the planet is capable of absorbing those increases. They contend that warming over the 20th century resulted primarily from natural processes such as fluctuations in the sun's heat and ocean currents. They say the theory of human-caused global climate change is based on questionable measurements, faulty climate models, and misleading science.
Early Science on Greenhouse Gasses and Climate Change
Scientists have known of the heating potential (greenhouse effect) of gases such as CO2 since at least 1859, when British physicist John Tyndall first began experiments leading to the discovery that CO2 in the atmosphere absorbs the sun's heat.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is released and absorbed in the global carbon cycle.
Source: United States Department of Energy "Simplified Global Carbon Cycle," http://genomics.energy.gov (accessed June 2, 2010)
On Feb. 16, 1938 engineer Guy S. Callendar published an influential study suggesting increased atmospheric CO2 from fossil fuel combustion was causing global warming. Many scientists at that time were skeptical of Callendar's conclusion, arguing that that natural fluctuations and atmospheric circulation changes determined the climate, not CO2 emissions.
In Mar. 1958 US climate scientist Charles Keeling began measuring atmospheric CO2 at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii for use in climate modeling. Using these measurements, Keeling became the first scientist to confirm that atmospheric CO2 levels were rising rather than being fully absorbed by forests and oceans (carbon sinks). When Keeling began his measurements, atmospheric CO2 levels stood at 315 parts per million (ppm).
In 1977 the US National Academy of Sciences issued the report "Energy and Climate" concluding that the burning of fossil fuels was increasing atmospheric CO2, and that increased CO2 was associated with a rise in global temperatures.
On June 23, 1988 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) scientist James Hansen presented testimony to the US Senate stating directly that increases in CO2 were warming the planet and "changing our climate." At the time, MIT meteorologist Richard Lindzen criticized these findings, arguing that computerized climate models were unreliable and that natural processes would balance out any warming caused by increased CO2.
Image of protestors at the Sep. 21, 2014 Peoples Climate March in New York, NY. Photograph by Christine Irvine, survivalmediaagency.com.
Source: http://peoplesclimate.org (accessed Mar. 12, 2015)
Formation of the IPCC and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to review research on global climate change (as of Feb. 2015, there were 195 IPCC member countries). The IPCC issued its first assessment report in 1990 stating that "emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases," resulting in "an additional warming of the Earth's surface."
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed by US President George Bush on Oct. 13, 1992. The goal of the convention was the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."
Each UNFCCC member state gained representation in the Conference of Parties (COP). Starting in Mar. 1995 with the COP 1, the conference of parties has met every year for a conference on climate change.
The Kyoto Protocol and Other International Conferences on Climate Change
Cartoon satirizing Vice President Al Gore and his views on global warming.
Source: http://1.bp.blogspot.com (accessed June 11, 2010
In Dec. 1997 over 161 nations met in Kyoto, Japan to negotiate a treaty to limit greenhouse gas emissions and work toward the objectives of the UNFCCC. The resulting Kyoto Protocol, signed by President Bill Clinton, set binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European Union to reduce greenhouse gas emissions roughly 5% below 1990 levels by 2012.
President George W. Bush withdrew the United States from the Kyoto Protocol in Mar. 2001 due to Senate opposition and concerns that limiting greenhouse gas emissions would harm the US economy. From July 16-27, 2001 the COP 6 conference (conference of signatory parties to the UNFCCC) took place in Bonn, Germany, and the final amendments to the Kyoto Protocol were made. 179 countries reached a binding agreement without US participation.
On Mar. 2, 2008 the Heartland Institute sought to challenge the idea that human activity was causing climate change by holding its own international conference on climate change. At the conference, 98 speakers including PhD climate scientists from major universities argued that global warming was most likely a natural event.
In Dec. 2009 the COP 15 conference took place in Copenhagen, Denmark. The resulting Copenhagen Accord, signed by 114 nations including the United States and China, called for "deep cuts" in human greenhouse gas emissions in order to make sure that earth's temperature rises no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
In Apr. 2010 Bolivia hosted an alternative to the UN COP conferences. The World People's Conference on Climate Change and the Rights of Mother Earth was attended by representatives from nearly 130 countries. The People's Agreement reached at the conference demanded that developed countries lower CO2 levels back to 300 ppm (from 389 ppm), and rejected the Copenhagen Accord for its "insufficient reductions in greenhouse gases." It stated that "[c]limate change is now producing profound impacts on agriculture and the ways of life of indigenous peoples and farmers throughout the world."
In 2012 the COP 18 conference was held in Doha, Qatar. At the conference the COP expressed "grave concern" that member states were not lowering greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to meet the Copenhagen Accord's mandate to prevent the earth's temperature from rising more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
In Dec. 2015, the COP 21 met in Paris where 195 countries, including the United States, adopted the Paris Agreement. The agreement’s central aim was to prevent global temperatures from rising more than 1.5°C - 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Under the agreement, all countries were required to create a national plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and report regularly on their individual progress towards meeting their emission reduction goals. Then President Obama called the agreement a "turning point for the world” that "establishes the enduring framework the world needs to solve the climate crisis.”
On June 1, 2017, President Trump announced his intention to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement and ordered the federal government to "cease all implementation" of the agreement. President Trump said the Paris Agreement had imposed "draconian financial and economic burdens” on the United States and created "serious obstacles" to energy development. On Nov. 7, 2017, during the COP 23 UN climate talks in Bonn, Germany, Syria announced that it would sign the Paris agreement on climate change, leaving the United States as the only country that has rejected the global pact.
US Debate over Climate Change Heats Up
Graph showing that rising CO2 levels correlate with higher global temperatures.
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, "Global Climate Change Indicators," www.ncdc.noaa.gov (accessed Mar 12, 2015)
Al Gore's documentary An Inconvenient Truth premiered in 2006 and was seen by over 5 million people worldwide. The film argued that human-caused climate change was real, and that without immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, catastrophic climate changes would severely disrupt human societies, leading to a possible collapse of industrial civilization.
In 2007 the IPCC released its Fourth Assessment Report stating that "warming of the climate system is unequivocal" and that "most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely [90% confidence] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic [man-made] greenhouse gas concentrations." The IPCC and Al Gore received a Noble Peace Prize for their climate science work in Oct. 2007. In response to the IPCC findings, a group of scientists formed the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) to compile a report challenging the science behind man-made climate change. Their Mar. 2, 2008 report, "Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate," was published by the Heartland Institute.
From 1998-2009 the US government appropriated $99 billion for work related to climate change. $35.7 billion (36%) of that total came as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.
On Apr. 2, 2007 the US Supreme Court ruled (5-4) in Massachusetts v. EPA that greenhouse gases met the criteria to be considered pollutants under the Clean Air Act. In response, the US EPA announced in 2009 that greenhouse gases "threaten public health" and are "the primary driver of climate change." In its June 23, 2014 decision in Utility Air Regulatory Group v. EPA, the US Supreme Court upheld the EPA's authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from stationary sources such as power plants.
In May 2013, President Barack Obama tweeted to his millions of Twitter followers that "Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: #climate change is real, man-made and dangerous." The 97% number was taken from Cook’s 2013 meta-study of 11,944 peer-reviewed papers on climate change. The study’s authors found that, of the 3,974 studies that took a position on human-caused climate change, 97.1% agreed that human activity is causing global warming. The study’s methodology was criticized by skeptics who point to the fact that only 65 of the 11,944 (0.5%) of the abstracts endorsed the position that human activity is primarily responsible (+50%) for global warming.
On Sep. 21, 2014 the largest climate march in history took place in New York, NY, with over 400,000 people marching to demand that world governments take immediate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Graph showing that Arctic air temperature (blue line) parallels natural solar activity (red line).
Source: Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, "Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide," Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, Fall 2007
How Will Climate Change Affect Us?
According to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, 2014 was the hottest year on record across the globe since 1880 when record keeping began. The 10 warmest years in this 135-year period occurred between 1998 and 2014.
As of May 11, 2019, CO2 levels were 415.3 ppm, up from 315.7 ppm when measurements began in 1958. These CO2 levels are reportedly higher than at any time in the last 650,000 years when levels fluctuated between 180 and 300 ppm.
As of 2010 the US had 4.5% of the world's population but was responsible for about 28% of all global greenhouse gas emissions. In 2011 global emissions of human-produced CO2 were about 34 billion tons, the equivalent of about 408 billion shipping containers full of greenhouse gases.
Predictions about how climate changes will affect civilization range from a Department of Defense report detailing catastrophic weather events and a "significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earth’s environment," to an Oregon Institute of Science and Health report detailing "an increasingly lush environment of plants and animals."
Latest IPCC Findings, National Climate Assessment, and Counterpoints
On Sep. 27, 2013 the IPCC announced that it is now "extremely likely [95% confidence] that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century."
The Heartland Institute argued against human-caused global warming in its 2013 NIPCC report which said that global warming since 1860 is the result of natural "cycles driven by ocean-atmosphere oscillations, or by solar variations."
The US Global Change Research Program released the 2014 National Climate Assessment on May 6, 2014. The report called climate change "a global public health problem," stated that climate change impacts are already "visible in every state," and concluded that human-induced "climate change is happening now." The report was criticized by some members of Congress including US Senator James Inhofe (R-OK), who stated that "we can all agree that natural variations in the climate are taking place, but man-made global warming still remains a theory."
In Nov. 2014 the IPCC stated in the summary of it's Fifth Assessment Report on global climate change that "Human influence on the climate system is clear," and that "recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems." In Oct. 2018, the IPCC issued a special 700-page report stating that the world needs to enact substantial reductions in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 to avoid temperature increases above 1.5°C that could cause extreme heat, drought, floods, and poverty.
In Nov. 2018, Volume II of the 4th National Climate Assessment was published. It concluded, in part, that "rising temperatures, extreme heat, drought, wildfire on rangelands, and heavy downpours" are expected to increase and that "[w]ithout adaptation, climate change will continue to degrade infrastructure performance over the rest of the century, with the potential for cascading impacts that threaten our economy, national security, essential services, and health and well-being." The Trump administration criticized the report, stating that "it's not based on facts... It's not data-driven. We'd like to see something that is more data-driven. It's based on modeling, which is extremely hard to do when you’re talking about the climate."
A Jan. 22, 2019 report from the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication found that 73% of Americans think global warming is occurring, marking a ten percentage point increase over Mar. 2015; meanwhile, 14% of Americans deny climate change is happening. Six in ten surveyed (62%) believe that global warming is being caused by humans, while 23% attribute it to "natural changes in the environment."
The group's 2018 report showed that 95% of liberal Democrats think global warming is happening and 84% think it is caused by humans. On the other end of the ideological spectrum, 40% of Republicans think global warming is happening and 26% think it is caused by humans. Those were the political extremes. 88% of moderate/conservative Democrats and 68% of moderate/liberal Republicans think global warming is happening. 70% and 55% of them, respectively, think it is caused mostly by human activities.
A 2017 Gallup poll found that 68% of Americans think global warming is caused by human activity, up from 50% in 2010 and 61% in 2001, while 29% think it is caused by natural causes, down from 46% in 2010 and 33% in 2001.
A Pew Research Center poll taken in 2018 found that 18% of Republicans in the Baby Boomer generation thought that "the earth is warming mostly due to human activity," compared to 36% of millennial Republicans and 75% of all Democrats.